In recent observations from the solar energy sector, as highlighted by InfoLink Consulting on February 17, 2024, a notable shift has occurred in the global rankings of the top five photovoltaic (PV) module suppliersThe total shipment volume of these industry leaders reached 162.8 gigawatts (GW), signifying a decline of approximately 10.7% compared to the previous yearThis decline marks the end of a robust growth phase that had characterized the industry for several consecutive years.

The reshuffle in rankings and the overall downturn in shipments can be attributed to three main factors that have profoundly influenced the dynamics of the PV battery industry.

Key Technology Evolution: The Rise of TOPCon

A striking feature of this year’s performance lies in the adoption of TOPCon (Tunnel Oxide Passivated Contact) technology, which accounted for 109.3 GW of the total shipped modules from the top five companies, representing a significant 67% share of their cumulative shipmentsAs the industry increasingly pivots towards N-type technology, those manufacturers employing TOPCon have established a clear competitive edge.

For example, JinkoSolar, leveraging its early and aggressive investment in TOPCon technology, has become a preferred brand among international clients, with its N-type battery shipments nearing 90%. This strategic focus on advanced technology has been a pivotal driver in enhancing its market standing.

Similarly, LONGi Green Energy has capitalized on this trendTheir efficient TOPCon battery projects at the Yibin base witnessed large-scale production in 2023, with total production capacity reaching 27 GW in 2024 and expectations for growth to 31 GWThese advancements have propelled the company to the fourth position globally, with its N-type shipments ranking among the top three in the world.

Significance of Global Market Strategies

Another influential factor has been the strategic expansions into overseas markets

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For instance, Zhongrun Photoelectricity’s decision to establish production capabilities in Laos, which includes a total capacity of 9 GW in battery cells and 3 GW in modules, enabled them to effectively circumvent the U.S. trade barriers impacting solar production in Southeast AsiaThis strategic positioning has allowed them to maintain strong sales in the U.S. market, thus sustaining their competitive edge.

As we look ahead to 2024, Jinko’s parent company, Junda Co., announced intentions to invest in the construction of an annual production capacity of 10 GW of high-efficiency photovoltaic cells in Oman under an investment memorandum with the Oman Investment AuthorityMeanwhile, LONGi has established a base in Indonesia with a total investment of 2 billion yuan to develop an annual capacity of 5 GW of high-efficiency crystalline silicon solar cellsSuch proactive measures not only enhance market presence but also strengthen these companies against market turbulence.

Impact of Operational Adjustments

Companies like Tongwei and Aiko Solar exemplify the significant influence of operational adjustments on market positioningTongwei has undertaken multiple PERC technology upgrades across its production lines while shifting its self-use ratio to account for 60-70% of total productionThis approach led to fluctuations in their shipment rankings in the first half of 2024. However, with the completion of 38 GW of PERC capacity upgrades, coupled with the rollout of 16 GW of new TNC capacity from Meishan and 25 GW from Shuangliu, the company anticipates exceeding 100 GW of TNC battery capacity by the year's end, thus driving a rebound in shipments for the latter half of the year.

Aiko’s production strategy, centered around ABC and PERC technologies, illustrates the implications of shifting market preferencesWith a focus primarily on internal applications for BC batteries, which do not contribute to external shipment figures, Aiko’s decision to maintain PERC as a major product focus during a market shift towards TOPCon consequently impacted their overall shipment rankings negatively.

Reflecting on the tumultuous year of 2024, the PV battery sector has navigated through challenges reminiscent of a tumultuous sea, overshadowed by the weight of excess supply

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The rapid expansion of the global solar market has led numerous companies to enter the battery production space, resulting in a dramatic oversupply that far exceeds actual market demand.

In such a climate of excess supply, price wars have erupted, escalating into fierce competition among manufacturersThe prices of TOPCon batteries, for instance, plummeted from 0.47 yuan per watt to as low as 0.28 yuan, a staggering reduction of 40%. This shocking decline not only severely squeezed profit margins for many firms but also plunged the entire sector into an unprecedented winter of financial uncertainty.

As battery manufacturers grapple with the devastating effects of price erosion, many found themselves under immense financial strainTo preserve market share, companies slashed product prices, at times even selling below production costs, further eroding profitability and threatening cash flow stabilitySmaller enterprises, in particular, faced existential crises, prompting drastic measures such as capacity reductions and layoffs to survive the increasingly hostile market landscape.

Despite these dire circumstances, a silver lining emerged during the industry's darkest period: a collective realization of the need for self-discipline and greater cooperation among players within the sectorCompanies began to take proactive steps to manage excessive capacity expansion, aiming to remedy supply-demand imbalancesConcurrently, an emphasis on technological innovation and improving product quality grew, increasing overall competitiveness in the market.

By the end of 2024, the industry began to show signs of rebound, with market conditions gradually improvingThe situation of oversupply started to transform, leading to a correction in supply-demand imbalancesAs market demand picked up, prices for photovoltaic batteries stabilized and even began to rise, presenting firms with a glimmer of hope for recovery.

While the road to recovery remains fraught with challenges, the positive shifts observed have reinvigorated confidence within the solar battery industry

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